A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
