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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest resurgence is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising in unison. Under an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing five other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still